The power of predictive modelling

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AS industry responds to demands for greater pro duction responsiveness and ‘make-to-order’ capability, increased focus is being placed on adapting quickly and prof itably to changing plant and market conditions.

This has led to the rise of so- called ‘information-enabled’ con trol architectures that capture, analyse, store and share produc tion data across the enterprise.

Sophisticated, web-enabled software tools play a crucial role here. By permitting data to be accessed, shared, and more importantly acted upon, plant operation can be enhanced.

Even fundamental software packages will permit analysis of the collected data to provide reports that pave the way for greater production efficiency.

As industry is marshalled down the path towards more sustain able practices, these tools can also be used to help reduce energy demands and assist with energy reporting obligations.

More advanced breeds of software that offer superior reporting, analysis and modelling tools deliver even greater functionality.

The data can, for example, be used strategically to create an integrated Energy-Supply model of a plant — essentially an evaluation of how energy resources are used.

Here, each energy-generating asset is assessed in terms of gen erating capacity, efficiency curves and operating costs to yield an economic sub-model (or financial profile).

Predictive modelling

But the evolution of production intelligence doesn’t stop there. The latest advances in produc tion and performance software utilise ‘predictive modelling’ algorithms to facilitate proactive decisions based on information fed back into the system — essen tially a ‘closed loop’ process per formance management system.

By using these advanced soft ware tools to compare different scenarios of future performance against an established baseline, companies can make proactive instead of reactive decisions to optimise processes. These sophis ticated software solutions are becoming known as ‘predictive- enterprise manufacturing intelli gence’ (P-EMI) applications, and incorporate financial information from the business system with high-fidelity process models.

‘Economic Energy Optimisation’ is one application that falls under the P-EMI realm. Companies can leverage the power of predictive modelling to generate sub-models for utilities, emissions, and production, which are then integrated with the financial system to present the optimum solution for a facility’s predicted demand.

This results in real-time and realistic energy consumption forecasts, and identifies areas where possible savings in energy could be made.

The power of this type of analysis was demonstrated recently at a food production facility, which was under the impression its new variable- speed drive (VSD) was cutting energy consumption and associated costs. However, an analysis of the system revealed that someone had changed the start-up parameters in the VSD, causing it to act like a direct-on- line starter instead of offering soft-starting capabilities — thus negating the cost-saving purpose of the VSD. The key here was being able to isolate the problem area, and subsequently effecting rapid change.

Power of information

Underpinning this new breed of production intelligence solutions are systems to handle and streamline delivery of the information.

The greatest efficiency will be achieved with a truly informa tion-enabled architecture — a fully integrated platform of software and hardware that captures, consolidates and dis tributes data throughout the enterprise in a purposeful and service-oriented way. The goal is to improve information access and relevancy, as well as main tain the information.

The power of information- enabled architecture, moreover, extends beyond even predictive control and production intelli gence to embrace a holistic plant view of sustainable operations.

The most common view of sus tainability concerns processes and technologies that consume minimal energy and resources, and create minimal waste; but a broader outlook encompasses workplace safety, product safety and reliability, and the reuse of waste products in the reverse supply chain.

Corrie van Rensburg is Rockwell Automation’s Industry Solutions Manager - South Pacific, 03 9896 0300, www.rockwellautomation.com.au

 

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